Belt and Road Initiative debt: defaults and the Renminbi
The BRI at a crossroads Belt and Road Initiative debt has become one of the defining fault lines in 21st-century geopolitics. When China launched the BRI in 2013, the ambition was clear. It aimed to replicate the ancient Silk Road — financing infrastructure that would bind Asia, Africa, and Europe into a single commercial network, […]
CIPS vs SWIFT: the battle for global financial infrastructure
Why CIPS vs SWIFT defines the future of financial power Behind every international wire transfer, trade invoice, and central bank operation lies a messaging infrastructure invisible to markets yet structurally decisive for geopolitical power. SWIFT — the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication — has performed that function since 1973. China’s Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), launched […]
China Export Controls: Gallium and Germanium as Geopolitical Weapons
How China export controls reshaped global supply chains China’s gallium and germanium export controls have become a defining case study in supply chain weaponisation. In August 2023, global exports of both metals from China collapsed to near zero almost overnight. China is the world’s dominant producer of both. Market forces did not cause this collapse […]
US, China and the petro-dollar system
US, China and the petrodollar system sit at the intersection of geopolitics and financial power — a never-ending story that defines the global power scenario of the 21st century. Financial superiority has become an increasingly decisive realm of this contest. If we take a snapshot of the current state of the two currencies — dollar […]
How Sudan’s civil war became a regional power contest
How Sudan’s civil war became a regional power contest is a critical development that the international community can no longer afford to ignore. What began in April 2023 as a localized power struggle has transformed into a high-stakes geopolitical battlefield. Consequently, Sudan is now a “forgotten war” where massive global consequences are unfolding in silence. […]
From grain to fertilizer: the new geopolitics of agriculture
As the 2026 sowing season commences, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has transformed the agricultural input market into a battlefield of resource nationalism. Consequently, food security no longer represents a simple trade metric ; it functions as a strategic military lever. The global squeeze: a two-front war on calories Geopolitics has finally collided […]
The geopolitical risk premium: pricing tension
Markets do not wait for disruption to become visible before they start pricing it. In energy, finance, and cross-border investment, markets often absorb part of the cost of instability in advance through expectations. This forward-looking element is the geopolitical risk premium: the extra return, spread, or price adjustment that markets demand when political tension raises the perceived […]
Doing business in Russia: market resilience & geopolitical risks
Introduction: a Market transformed Doing business in Russia has become one of the most contested strategic questions in international commerce. Since 2022, geopolitical tensions, sanctions, and economic fragmentation have fundamentally altered operating conditions for foreign companies. Many have been forced to reconsider whether — and how — they can remain active in the market. And yet, […]
Meme, Machine, Manipulation: the new politics of influence in information
In the era of social media, the pace at which information spreads is faster than ever. Twitter (now X), Telegram, and Facebook are just a few examples of platforms used daily by millions of users to keep track of what is happening around the globe. While relying on fast and easily accessible sources of information […]
Shipping & choke points: geography as risk
Globalization is often described as a world of seamless flows. Goods move, capital circulates, and supply chains stretch across continents. Yet global trade is far less fluid than it appears. In practice, much of it still depends on a small number of narrow maritime passages, where geography compresses movement into a few vulnerable corridors. There may […]